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Environmental Scan Task Force
Issues by Category
February 2007
Environmental/Resource Issues
Cultural/Social Issues
Political Trends
Economic Forces
Work Force
Population Demographic
Technology
Academic
ENVIRONMENTAL/RESOURCE ISSUES
(from Peter Ashbrook)
Global/national issues
Sustainability
Forward thinking campuses and businesses have begun to devote resources to understanding environmental constraints that might impact future conduct of their business. Universities are often expected to take a leadership role in such discussions. MU has a lot of good stories to tell and could get some good publicity by making a more active commitment to sustainability. At best, sustainability could reduce long term operating costs. Taking a pro-active approach to sustainability would also allow MU to transition into sustainability practices at our pace rather than under some artificial deadline (political or otherwise).
Global warming
Perhaps the largest sub-issue under sustainability, global warming is the signature environmental issue of today. We see this internationally (continuing discussions of the Kyoto Protocol), nationally (leading businesses and some states are addressing this in spite of the current lack of support from the Bush administration), and locally.
Agricultural issues-pesticides, fertilizers, genetically modified organisms
Many of the environmental issues come together around agriculture. Pesticides and fertilizers enhance production, but if used improperly, harm the environment. Genetically modified organisms have great production potential, but are viewed with suspicion in some quarters. MU must walk carefully in these areas to avoid offending key constituents.
Regional issues
Energy supply/conservation
MU has a tremendously successful track record in energy conservation and efficiency. We ought to do a better job of publicizing our successes in these areas. The coal-fired power plant is economically advantageous, but an environmental liability. Energy costs can be an area of competitive advantage in keeping operating costs lower than competitors because we have a head start on most other universities. This is especially true when we have unusually severe hot or cold weather, or energy prices spike up.
Related to these issues is the impact of energy prices on our students, faculty, and staff. We are probably more reliant on the automobile than our national competitors. High gas prices are a tremendous burden on commuters.
Natural disasters (snow, ice, floods, pandemic flu)
While we cannot do anything about our location, our operating costs are affected by the climate and potential for severe weather. We can mitigate potential costs by having a strong emergency preparedness program.
Waste management/recycling/waste minimization
This is a continuing sustainability issue and less glamorous than global warming. Though not a huge financial drain on campus, how we generate and manage waste says a lot about what kind of institution we are.
Water issues-supply, storm water management, waste water treatment
Available of adequate supplies of drinking water is an issue that will cause significant conflicts between states and communities. Missouri may be less impacted than some because of our plentiful supplies of ground water, but our neighbors to the best have been watching ground water sources be depleted and we are seeing consequences of this both elsewhere in the U.S. and internationally.
Storm water management has been a major area of emphasis nationwide and locally in recent years and has already impacted HOW developments occur. Before long, storm water considerations will impact WHERE development can occur and will be a more prominent consideration in the DESIGN of buildings.
With respect to waste water, Columbia is a national leader in having wetlands provide tertiary treatment of waste water. Overall, water issues may be an area in which we have some competitive advantages.
Local issues
Campus natural environment-green space, Missouri Botanical Garden
Everyone likes to talk about how beautiful their campus is, but MU truly has one of the most beautiful campuses nationwide. This is not just cosmetic, as many of the practices for developing and maintaining the campus are state of the art.
Environmental Resources (from Mark Ehlert)
Reemerging interest in nuclear power
Alternative energies a high priority, especially from agricultural products
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CULTURAL/SOCIAL ISSUES
(from Bill Elder)
Public higher education institutions are accountable to diverse publics with differing social and cultural perspectives. The interplay of these perspectives can influence the environment within which a university operates and have general as well as specific practical consequences.
Missouri remains conflicted regarding Right to Life and Pro-Choice issues.
Missouri is a Midwestern State with Middle Midwestern sensibilities--Missouri is part "Corn Belt", part "Sun Belt", part "Eastern" and part "Western".
Missouri's population is dispersed among central cities, suburbs, regional trader centers, rural villages and an extensive countryside. Moreover, this settlement pattern is embedded within regional areas with differing cultural identities from central city neighborhoods, to the "Green Hills" to the "Bootheel."
About 12% of Missourians are African-American and less than 3 percent are Hispanic.
Like many U.S. central cities, Missouri's large central cities are facing institutional crisis in public elementary and secondary education.
Missouri is in the midst of attempting to constrain costs and restructure services for a $7 billion Medicaid program.
Missouri is a low tax and low spend state ranking 42nd in per capita revenue and 47th in per capita expenditures.
Public Institutions are often explicit about their values and their institutional cultures. MU affirms its commitment to Respect, Responsibility, Discovery and Excellence.
Cultural / Social (from Mark Ehlert)
Middle of the pack is ok attitude
Urban areas suffering social, economic, and educational problems
Rural and historically agricultural basis for much of state
Significant military presence in the state and mid-Missouri
Strong place for tourism in many local economies in the state
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POLITICAL TRENDS
(from Bart Wechsler)
Assumptions:
Current trends largely continue
Political dynamics are unchanged at state-level (even if Democrats win governorship)
National fiscal dynamics drive state circumstances.
State
Little state budget growth
Social issues continue to affect university-based research
K-12 continuing fiscal priority
Constraints imposed on tuition increases
Increased micromanagement of universities
Increased pressures for "accountability"
Effective privatization of higher education
Pressures for universities to become more involved in K-12 education
Conflicting priorities within and between parties lead to policy gridlock
Term limits reduce policy knowledge and capacity
State political races more competitive which politicizes everything
National
Increased fiscal challenges
More limits to federal discretionary spending
Entitlements crisis
War on terrorism (Iraq, Iran, elsewhere) important, but don't dominate U.S. foreign policy agenda
Continued gridlock on domestic issues
Climate change and other environmental issues on agenda
Increased federal oversight of higher education
Conflicting priorities within and between parties
Immigration battles continue
International
International opinion remains hostile to U.S. policy
Increasing tensions with China and Russia
Increasing Iranian influence undermines U.S. position in Middle East
Continued U.S. dependence on foreign oil
Lessened support from traditional allies
Growing economic and military strength of China, India
Political (from Mark Ehlert)
Legislative micro management
Limits on research
Perspectives and reactions to efforts to promote diversity
World conflicts may reduce international demand for graduate study
Urban centers have strong influence on state politics
National legislators have played major roles in securing funding for the state and university
Perceived character of U.S. may negatively impact international student interest in American higher education
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ECONOMIC FORCES
(from Tom Johnson and Kitty Dickerson)
Today's global interdependence means that economies, companies, and even faculty research are interconnected over broad geographic areas, with little concern for national borders-- creating a need for faculty and students who operate in Friedman's "flat world."
Shifts in global manufacturing and trade patterns have resulted in broad economic, social, and political ramifications.
Although globalization has helped many groups economically, large numbers of others are increasingly disenfranchised by this phenomenon, creating immense "globalization gaps" that increase, rather than decrease, over time. This affects who has access to education (as well as to everything else).
Global economic growth is changing relative prices of goods and services, especially energy, food and natural resources.
Global warming is now a certainty and the effects (direct effects and effects of policy) will significantly change our economy in the future.
Economic development, especially in India and China, is changing the relative competitiveness of nations and regions.
Various sectors in the U.S. economy will be affected by our proliferation of free trade agreements with various countries.
Federal budgetary priorities such as deficit reduction, on-going defense spending, stabilization of the social security system, and health care may leave little room for growth in federal support for research and higher education. This will place more emphasis on state, private, philanthropic, and tuition support for the University.
Economic growth is increasingly a regional phenomenon. Various studies have shown growing regional differences in growth, especially in India, China and Europe, but also in the United States.
The importance of quality of life, natural amenities, and built amenities in economic growth will continue to rise. Again a number of studies have shown the importance of the creative milieu.
Economy (from Mark Ehlert)
Declining manufacturing economic base leads to increased demand for higher education as key to successful careers and high standard of living (ETS report: America's Perfect Storm, 2007)
Economic cycles cause fluctuations in state revenues which cause fluctuations in state support which lead to interesting pricing and spending policies.
Rising prices may be impacting choice of academic majors - capacity issues in high demand programs and efficiency issues in low demand programs. (Influence operating through rising debt loads?)
Continuing increase in standard of living for households with college educated workers.
Children bring expectations for continuing that standard of living to campus. (Has this always been the case, but now there are more and more children of privilege on campus?)
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WORK FORCE
Faculty
What are the demographics of our faculty with respect to likely retirement? How many faculty will we need to replace through retirements in coming years?
What have been the trends with respect to the use of "non-regular" faculty?
How many faculty do we lose every year? Has it been increasing/decreasing/staying the same over the last ten years? How does that compare to peers?
How many tenure-track faculty do we recruit each year? Are there differences in disciplines?
How many new "non-regular" faculty do we recruit each year? How many do we lose? Are there differences in disciplines? What have been the trends over the past years? What "pool" of people do we draw the "non-regular" faculty from?
Who are our main competitors for tenure-track faculty that we want to recruit? For "non-regular" faculty?
How many Ph.D.s/terminal degrees are being produced by discipline? (is the supply sufficient to meet the demand by discipline).
How many Ph.Ds/terminal degrees are being produced in under-represented groups? (is the supply sufficient to meet the demand)
Challenges with foreign born faculty, post 9/11. What disciplines is this likely to be a concern? (i.e., what disciplines tend to have foreign born faculty)
How many new faculty recruits of academic spouses? Are there national trends in this arena?
Why do our new faculty choose to come to MU? (can we get some data from a survey)
Where is MU on salary competitiveness?
Graduate Students
What is our likely demand for graduate students in research and teaching (how many RAs have we had per dollar of research might be a good predictor; as might TAs per student enrollment?)
What are the trends in applications nationally and with our competitors? (i.e., is there a supply to meet demand, are there problems in certain disciplines?)
Where do we compare with respect to stipend, tuition and benefits in recruiting graduate students?
What are the trends with respect to international graduate students, and how does MU compare?
What are the likely impacts of export controls and continued concern against the role of non-native English speakers in the classroom with respect to the supply of graduate students?
Postdoctoral Scientists
What is our likely demand for postdocs - can we get data on number of postdocs per dollar of research ? Is there any data on this nationwide or for AAUs? What is the average length of stay of a postdoc?
What are the trends with respect to postdoc availability by discipline?
Where do we compare with respect to salary and benefit for postdocs with other AAU?
What are the trends with respect to international Postdocs, and how does MU compare?
What are the likely impacts of export controls and continued concern to the supply Postdocs?
Research support/technical staff (e.g., lab technicians)
What is our likely demand for research support staff - can we get data on number per dollar of research ? Is there any data on this nationwide or for AAUs? What is the average length of stay of a research staff member? Where do our current research staff come from (e.g., how many are graduated students?)
What are the trends with respect to the availability of research support staff?
Where do we compare with respect to salary and benefit for research support with other AAU?
Is there a supply to meet our demand?
Senior Academic Administrators (Chair and "above")
What has been our turnover of academic administrators? How many are we likely to need over the next ten years?
Where do our academic administrators come from? (proportion from inside vs. outside MU) Can we get data on what that pool will look like over the next ten years? What about candidates from under-represented groups/
Where do we compare with respect to salary and benefit for Academic Administrators with respect to other AAU? Who are our competitors for academic administrators? When we don't recruit our top candidate, do we know why we don't?
Can we survey to find out why academic administrators came or stay at MU?
Senior non-Academic Administrators (Directors, Managers, etc.)
What has been our turnover of non-academic administrators? How many are we likely to need over the next ten years?
Where do our non-academic administrators come from? (proportion from inside vs. outside MU) Can we get data on what that pool will look like over the next ten years? What about candidates from under-represented groups?
Where do we compare with respect to salary and benefit for non-Academic Administrators with respect to other AAU? Who are our competitors for academic administrators? When we don't recruit our top candidate, do we know why we don't?
Can we survey to find out why academic administrators came or stay at MU?
Academic and non-academic support staff
What are the demographics of our support staff with respect to likely retirements? How many support staff will we need to replace through retirements in coming years?
What are the particular areas that we will have the largest need for support staff? What areas are we concerned there will be a shortage of available workers?
What is the likely dynamics of the pool from which we draw our support staff from?
Where do we compare with respect to salary and benefit for support staff with respect to other AAUs? Who are our competitors for support staff? When we don't recruit our top support staff candidates, do we know why we don't?
Work Force (from Mark Ehlert)
Growth in demand for college education leads to growth in demand for college faculty and staff.
Can graduate students fill technician positions?
Disparities in salaries for faculty, administrators, and technical staff compared to service workers causing problems at some institutions (Vanderbilt)
Are we the "best" employer for skilled and unskilled workers in the local labor market?
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POPULATION/DEMOGRAPHIC
(from Ann Korschgen)
World population issues and implications
Third world country population challenges
Overall world population changes
Pending impact of Bologna Accord upon international enrollments
USA population issues and implications
Changes in racial/ ethnic proportions
Baby boomers aging and increasing longevity
Generation Y (1981-1994) numbers and profile
Income shifts
Changes in college/graduate school enrollments
Changes in median age of college attendance
Midwest population issues and implications
Populations decline/growth in certain states in Midwest
Changes in number of students going to college in region
Changes in ethnic/racial numbers
Income shifts
Changes in numbers of students studying on-line
Changes in number of first generation students going to college
Missouri population issues and implications
Pending dip in high school graduates
Changes in racial ethnic proportions
Changes in number of high school graduates going to college
Changes in number of students going to community colleges/four year schools
Changes in number of students attending graduate schools
Changes in number of students continuing on to four years schools from community colleges
Changes in A+ enrollments and profiles
Income/ SES shifts
Changes in average family savings for college
Mizzou population issues and implications
Changes in SES characteristics
Changes in ability indicators
Changes in ethnic/racial composition
Changes in retention/graduation rates
Changes in non-traditional students
Changes in graduate, professional and undergraduate enrollments
Changes in average student loan debt
Changes in transfer student enrollments
NSSE trend data
Changes in the number of 3rd party payments
Changes in on-campus/off-campus living arrangements
Population Analysis (from Mark Ehlert)
Baby boomers aging and increasing longevity
Changes in racial / ethnic proportions
Immigration
Sun belt migration patterns -- impact on state / Midwest populations
Third world country challenges - health and war issues
Short term dip in K-12 pipeline and longer-term trends
Overall world population growth
Local growth - big town to small city to major metropolitan area?
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TECHNOLOGY
New technologies have created the "flat earth." Globalization and Digitization interact, each strengthening the impact of the other and changing everything: economies, governments, communities, universities.
Technologies challenge the importance of geographic communities by creating competing virtual communities based on disciplines or interests.
Technologies destroy whatever boundaries once existed among the professions and disciplines. Law, business, journalism, the sciences--all must have some knowledge of all in order to operate in an interconnected world. (E.g.: Can a resident of Alabama sue a Web site in Hamburg? What combinations of lawyers, journalists, computer scientists and MBAs are needed to run a global media empire? Or to fight it?
High-capacity Web technologies may overcome the disadvantages of communities far from urban centers. How to exploit?
Increased opportunities for distributed learning, just-in-time learning and other pedagogies made possible by 24/7 connectedness?
Impact on the academic community: use and misuse of cell phones, laptops; possibilities for better or more efficient learning through use of technology?
Shortage of U.S. students interested in or prepared for study in engineering and the sciences
Does increased emphasis on moving from concept to product reduce respect and support for basic research in the academy?
Should health sciences be seen as technologies and the next growth industry?
What are the opportunities/dangers of universities' collaboration with high tech firms?
What are the implications for us of disruptive technologies? How will they change academic life? Are there opportunities for new research and teaching programs centered on disruptive technologies?
Technology (from Mark Ehlert)
Information technology advances increase feasibility of distributing learning opportunities, i.e., distance education (credit bearing) and just-in-time learning (personal and professional development).
Course syllabi, associated lecture notes, and other course resource lists, etc., being made freely available by some universities and departments.
IT availability - increasing diffusion to K-12 schools, communities, and households increases potential value for information dissemination and information seeking activities to occur via the Internet.
Broadband streaming and electronic "courseware" may allow more partnerships among institutions in designing and delivering courses and degree programs, e.g., articulated programs could have MU students complete some course work through partner institution and some students from partner institution complete some course work at MU. This could be multiple 4 year institutions or combinations of 2 year and 4 year institutions.
Declining interest and enrollments in math, engineering, technology, and science fields by American students may impact U.S. ability to maintain technological advantages.
Volatility in industry and university partnerships to pursue basic and applied research. Downturn during turn of the century reversed recently. What are implications of increasing demand from industry, government, and military for research activities?
Increasing emphasis on moving research from concept to product may reduce value placed on basic research.
Health science advances are a form of technology, perhaps the next growth industry?
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ACADEMIC
Academic Sector (from Mark Ehlert)
Continuing aggressive recruitment of high ability students
Increasing focus on documenting "value added" of higher education experiences
Aggressive strategy of state institutions to increase enrollments and stature
Compete with private institutions for state financial aid dollars
Growth in A+ schools program now has about 15% to 20% of public high school graduates eligible for community college tuition assistance.
Preparation of K-12 math and science teachers is not sufficient to meet demand
Increasing prevalence of international students pursuing higher education in other countries
Increasing use of merit-based aid provides support to students who would attend college anyway, and to the degree that merit aid replaces need-based aid, limits opportunities for low income and first generation students.
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